Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,600,937$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,609,190.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,609,190.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $95,979$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(8.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,362.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,362.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,154,823$ on 2020-05-22

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,947$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,232.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(87,232.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,360$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(339 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,756.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,756.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,979$ on 2020-05-22

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,267$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(935 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,935.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,935.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $295$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(24.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(309.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,697$ on 2020-05-22

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,527$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,171.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(106,171.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,989$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(189 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,693.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,693.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,347$ on 2020-05-22

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,989$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(912 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,504.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(17,504.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $456$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(66.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{458.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(458.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,961$ on 2020-05-22

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,477$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(74.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,987.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,987.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $167$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(14 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(232.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,871$ on 2020-05-22

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(334 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,911.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,911.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $81$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(14.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $204$ on 2020-05-22

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,725$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(36.7 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,663.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,663.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,122$ on 2020-05-22

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Cuba recovered 76%
Jamaica recovered 19%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $544$ on 2020-05-22

Best fit exponential: \(47.1 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{538.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(538.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-22

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-05-22