Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,600,937$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.43 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,609,190.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,609,190.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $95,979$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(8.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,362.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 44.1)}}\) (asimptote \(96,362.5\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,154,823$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,947$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,232.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(87,232.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,360$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(339 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,756.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,756.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,979$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,267$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(935 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,935.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,935.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $295$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(24.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{309.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(309.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,697$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $62,527$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,171.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 61.4)}}\) (asimptote \(106,171.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,989$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(189 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,693.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,693.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,347$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,989$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(912 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,504.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(17,504.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $456$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(66.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{458.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(458.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,961$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,477$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(74.8 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,987.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 71.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,987.4\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $167$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(14 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{232.5}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(232.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,871$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(334 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,911.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,911.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $81$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(14.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $204$ on 2020-05-22
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,725$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(36.7 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,663.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 65.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,663.6\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-22
Best fit exponential: \(2.15 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,122$ on 2020-05-22
